News Briefing - November 18, 2008

ASEAN

Political News

• The UN FAO urged ASEAN governments to ensure poor have access to staple crops in 2009.

Business News

• The Singapore Exchange proposed the creation of an integrated Asian stock market.
• Leaders at the ASEAN summit are expected to institutionalize the proposed $80 billion regional fund agreed to at the ASEM summit in October.

Indonesia

THEMES

Effects of the Financial Crisis

• Sri Mulyani believes Indonesia’s economic growth may fall to 5% next year due to the global economic slowdown.
• SBY attended the G-20 meeting in DC to settle an emergency plan to counter the global financial crisis. He indicated that he thought it would take another meeting or two to fully iron out the plan.
• SBY has sought to hold accountable countries responsible for the financial crisis by calling for new funds for disbursement to less developed nations adversely affected by the crisis.
• The central bank plans to limit the purchase of foreign currencies above $100,000 only to those who can provide underlying transactions, to balance demand and supply in the foreign exchange market, reduce extreme pressure to the rupiah and minimize foreign exchange purchase for speculative means.

Coal News

• Bakrie may change the terms of its sale in Bumi to Northstar after Bumi’s share price plunged 50%. Bumi also plans to raise $600 million by issuing medium-term notes to help fund a share buyback plan.
• BP Migas signed contracts with four consortiums to develop coal bed methane in Kalimantan, with investment totaling $20.3 million.
• PLN is experiencing a coal supply shortage affecting its power plants. The government plans to issue a new regulation next month requiring coal producers to set aside part of their production to meet domestic consumption of up to 60 million tons a year.

ExxonMobil News

• BP Migas confirmed that floating storage offshore project in Cepu Block will proceed, saying the fall in oil prices make the project more economical.
• An official from the information and communication office of Bojonegoro said there is an initiative among Team 9 members to return the money to Exxon to help clear Cepu Block land. He provided no further details.
• The mediation process failed between ExxonMobil and the company’s former employees over a compensation dispute. The case will go to court.

The 2009 Election

• Elections supervising bodies have begun probing a number of political parties running lavish ad campaigns after being unable to trace back money deposited into their accounts. According to the elections law, a political party must submit a financial report and list its bank accounts and giving explanations of sources.
• The Indonesia military has pledged to remain neutral during the 2009 elections and plans to punish any personnel who do not comply.
• The United Development Party will support SBY and Jusuf Kalla in next year's presidential election.

ADDITIONAL NEWS

Political News

• East Java gubernatorial candidate Soekarwo and his running mate Saifullah Yusuf won by a narrow margin over pre-election favorites Khofifah Indar Parawansa and her running mate Mudjiono. Khofifah complained to the Constitutional Court for alleged vote rigging. The hearing process began on Monday.
• The Corruption Court sentenced former BI legal bureau chief Oey Hoey Tiong and former BI governor bureau chief Rusli Simanjuntak to four years in prison each and fined them $16,810 each for embezzlement of $8.8 million from BI funds in 2003.
• House of Representatives legislators admitted Wednesday they accepted money from fellow politicians on trial for graft, such as Hamka Yandu, but said they did not know why they received it or whether it was related to the BLBI scandal.
• Former justice and human rights minister Yusril Ihza Mahendra has announced his willingness to be questioned by the AGO over his alleged involvement in a $33.9 million graft scandal at the ministry.
• Family members of senior officials implicated in a $33.6 million corruption scandal at the Justice and Human Rights Ministry received part of the stolen money. The family members had no relation to the project at the root of the scandal.
• The National Police announced the detention of a stock market broker for allegedly spreading rumors by email about a deposit run on certain banks, which led to brief panic and put the country’s banking health into question.
• The Supreme Court upheld the Corruption Court's sentencing of former Judicial Commission member Irawady Junus to eight years in jail for accepting bribes to facilitate a land acquisition deal with a recently convicted landowner totalling $78,889.
• Legislator Yusuf Erwin Faishal admitted to receiving a total of $56,561 in alleged bribes to push for approval from the House of Representatives for the conversion of a protected forest in South Sumatra.

Business News

• Pertamina plans to divest 60% of its participating interest in Natuna Block-D Alpha oil field to several other companies. The company will maintain a 40% stake and remain the major holder of interest in the block.
• The recent publicity over a graft allegation involving Pertamina, concerning the import of Zatapi crude oil, may stem from a dispute within the company's top officials over procurement contracts. It is unlikely the situation would be investigated if it had not conflicted with the interests of top company officials.
• The Indonesian government has signed 33 cooperation contracts to develop oil and gas blocks worth $91.8 million.
• Rumor has it that Energi Mega Persada expects to get $550 million from the divestment of its 50% shares in Kangean Block, EMP’s largest asset.
• Local steel manufacturers may have to soon shut down their operations indefinitely unless government limits steel imports and forces state companies to purchase locally made products. Steel imports have taken a heavy toll on the domestic industry because some products can cheaply imported.
• Tren Mobile TV Consortium and Telkom Consortium Group have been selected to test mobile TV after they successfully won the tender. It is expected the consortium will submit their frequency allocation proposal by November 24.
• Several network operators qualifying for the tender for the USO project are reviewing their service sustainability strategies in these blocks.
• It was announced that all network providers, not only cellular providers, are allowed to enter the USO tender.
• The AGO expects to encounter difficulties while probing alleged graft in Indover, and believes issues over jurisdiction and witness will be the main obstacles.
• The Indonesian Bond Pricing Agency is collaborating with an unnamed Malaysian company to make IBPA the first bond-pricing agency in Indonesia.
• Jambi’s provincial and municipal administrations signed a carbon trade agreement with an Australian investor in an attempt to preserve the area’s forests and increase regional revenue.

Malaysia

THEMES

Effect of the Financial Crisis

• Bank Negara Governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz and Malaysian economist Jomo Kwame Sundaram have been appointed members of the United Nations’ high-level task force to examine possible reforms of the global financial system.
• The government plans to attract greater foreign investment to cushion against the economic slowdown by relaxing rules in the manufacturing and construction sectors, which account for more than 30% of the domestic economy.

UMNO News

• The ACA plans to begin charging more people over money politics in UMNO, and are already compiling evidence in some of the 900 reports from the recent UMNO divisional and branch meetings.
• Following allegations made by Mahathir that money politics were involved in the UMNO deputy president race, several UMNO members have asked for evidence because otherwise it is only speculation.
• The Wanita UMNO transition plan was thrown into doubt after Kamilia Ibrahim announced she would contest the deputy head post, though the plan is for there to be no contest for the top two posts. Shahrizat Abdul Jalil said she would decide soon whether to defend her post or move up by contesting against Tan Sri Rafidah Aziz.

Internal Security Act

• Theresa Kok had her statement on the azan issue recorded for the first time since her ISA detention. She has denied allegations that she told mosque officials in Kota Damansara, Sri Serdang and Puchong Jaya to tone down the call to prayer, as have the mosque officials.
• One week after a protest against the ISA took place at Padang Timur, opponents of the act organized another demonstration at the Petaling Jaya Civic Centre. Approximately 100 hundred protestors were involved.

ADDITIONAL NEWS

Political News

• Ong Tee Keat has appointed Wong Foon Meng as MCA’s new secretary-general, Tee Hock Seng as the treasurer-general, and Wyman Yoo Wei How as the national organizing secretary.
• Samy Vellu intends to defend his post as MIC president in the next election. Former MIC VP M. Muthupalaniappan also plans to contest.
• Home Ministry secretary-general Abdul Aziz Mohd Yusof has been appointed chairman of the Election Commission starting December 31.
• The House of Representatives’ Committee on Justice has set a four-day hearing next week on the fourth impeachment complaint filed against GMA, beginning November 18.
• The Transport Ministry's refusal to terminate Puspakom's contract despite a spate of corruption cases involving the company's employees has drawn severe criticism. The ministry says extending Puspakom’s contract will help the company recoup its investment.
• Karpal Singh has lodged a police report against Chief Justice Tan Sri Zaki Tun Azmi based on statements Zaki made that he knew two retired judges suspected to be corrupt, and for allegedly admitting to corrupt practices while in private practice.
• Selangor executive councilor Ronnie Liu was arrested at the State Secretariat building in Shah Alam, for allegedly obstructing Subang Jaya Municipal Council enforcement officers from carrying out their duties during an anti-vice raid at a hotel in Puchong last year.
• Nearly all of the state government agencies and departments have received "clean audit certificates" from the Auditor-General's Department this year, as opposed to previous years where performance has been poor.

Business News

• Telekom Malaysia’s share price tumbled 15% after the company announced it would still pay out excess cash in future but could not guarantee it would be a minimum of $193.4 million. Without the minimum dividend payout, investors can no longer assess the amount of dividends they can expect to receive from TM going forward.
• The government does not plan to float Petronas because it is the biggest contributor to the country’s revenue and thus should remain fully owned by the government.
• The government is working on a plan to allow the creation of Islamic hedge funds, which sits uneasily with some Islamic finance experts who say hedge funds amount to gambling, which is forbidden by the sharia.
• Malaysia and Iran have outlined new areas of cooperation that promise to boost bilateral and trade ties, such as trade and industries as well as culture, diplomacy, politics and youth-related issues.

Philippines

THEMES

Effects of the Financial Crisis

• All key indicators in the investments picture were positive in the first nine months of this year, with combined investments posting a growth of 96% to $7.45 billion versus $3.8 billion in the same January-September period last year. Future figures are not expected to be as positive.
• Malacañang urged members of Congress to prioritize the passage of eight measures to protect the economy, including the 2009 national budget, rationalization of fiscal incentives, consumer rights protection, national tourism policy, and amendments to the Customs Brokerage Act.
• The PDIC is seeking $88 million from Congress for the increase in the amount of insured bank deposits from $5,000 to $10,000.
• BSP is renewing its $500 million short-term loan from the Bank for International Settlements as temporary fund to prop up the country’s dollar reserves, which lost $1 billion in October alone.
• The National Economic and Development Authority is urging businessmen to invest in local banks, which are now regarded as the safest places to put their funds since foreign banks are seen to be risky.
• Worldwide spending on IT is expected to slow significantly in 2009 as a direct result of the global financial crisis. Philippine companies are worried, though some are hopeful that companies will outsource to the Philippines as a way of cutting costs.

Dissatisfaction with GMA

• Members of the House Committee on Justice will debate on the issue of whether there is legal basis to reject or accept the amendment to the impeachment complaint against GMA filed last week.
• GMA will have the opportunity to appoint seven new SC justices next year, which has raised concerns about the independence of the court. Six of fourteen candidates are known to have personal and political ties with GMA.
• GMA continues to struggle with low public satisfaction and trust ratings over the last 12 months, according to a poll by Pulse Asia. 46% of respondents disapproved of her while 51% were distrustful.

ADDITIONAL NEWS

Political News

• Manuel Villar was ousted from his Senate president position and replaced by Juan Ponce Enrile due to the C-5 road project controversy. Jose Estrada will remain Senate President Pro Tempore and Juan Miguel Zubiri will be the new majority leader.
• Eduardo Cojuangco Jr. has expressed he would like the Nationalist People’s Coalition to begin preparing for elections in 2010. It is rumored he is looking at either Senator Loren Legarda or Francis Escudero to run for office.
• Malacañang is not ruling out the possibility that the unauthorized release of $139,000 from Philippine National Police intelligence fund by Eliseo de la Paz is part of a bigger conspiracy. De la Paz took the blame, possibly wanting to protect higher officials.
• Congressmen are threatening to subpoena and arrest Jocelyn Bolante even if he is under Senate custody in order to testify regarding the fertilizer fund scam.
• Department of National Defense expects no changes in the Philippines’ defense and military relations with the US following the change in presidential administration.
• MILF has announced it does not trust the government to reopen stalled peace talks and is seeking international intervention to resolve the issue, though there were no specifics.
• The government has asked Malaysia, Brunei, Libya and Japan to extend their stay as ceasefire monitors in Mindanao.
• Members of the House of Representatives' Committee on Constitutional Amendments reported the results of their district consultation on charter change, which showed that the majority are in favor of the change after the 2010 elections.

Business News

• Ashmore Group is still looking for potential local partners in its bid to buy the government’s stake in Petron. San Miguel is being considered as a potential partner. They expect to finalize the deal by the end of the year.
• PNOC-EC has postponed the planned sale of the majority interest in the company, pointing to the current weak investor sentiment resulting from the global financial crisis.
• The TransCo franchise bill is expected to be signed soon, since it is now up for a third reading. It is expected to go through by early January at the latest.
• Waterfront Philippines and its two subsidiaries are working for an amicable settlement with major creditor Philippine National Bank, after a lower court ordered the postponement of the auction of two Waterfront hotels.
• Metro Pacific Investments may go slow on acquisitions next year due to tight credit, but will remain on the lookout for opportunities that may come due to falling share prices and expects recent acquisitions to bring in more revenue.
• The consortium of the Metro Pacific Investment and Harbour Centre of the Romero family is in talks with the Philippine Ports Authority to resume the bid process for the Manila North Harbor, one of the country’s oldest ports.
• Comelec is doubtful that biometrics will be sued as a security precaution for voter registration due to cost considerations, but poll automation for the 2010 elections is expected to proceed as planned.
• Six banks have made the short list of potential bidders for Philam Savings Bank: Asia United Bank, Banco de Oro Unibank, China Banking Corp., Chinatrust (Philippines) Commercial Bank, East West Bank and Robinsons Savings Bank. The sale could go through very soon.
• It is estimated that 10% of medicines in the Philippines are counterfeit. The government is trying to raise awareness of the problem because the drugs can be ineffective or toxic.
• Ayala Corp.’s profits dipped by a quarter to $30 million in the third quarter because of higher consumer prices and the global financial slowdown.
• Ayala-owned Globe Telecom is reducing its capital expenditure budget next year from this year’s $420 million budget in a move to take fewer risks until the market improves.
• The SM Group is teaming up with Generali Pilipinas and the Kuok Group to bid for Philamlife.
• The Asian Development Bank is planning to extend $974 million in loans to the Philippines over the next two years to fund infrastructure and policy support programs.
• Apex Mining has projected further losses next year as more capital and operational expenditures are expected before its processing plant can be operational in 2010.
• SPC Power gave the highest bid of $5.86 million for the 146.5 MW Panay and 22-MW Bohol diesel power plants in a public auction held by PSALM, putting the power asset privatization level above the 70% target.
• The Japanese and Philippine governments have set December 11 as the date JPEPA will take effect.

Singapore

Business News

• The government expects to unveil help measures for business and workers within the week, including a loan access scheme for businesses, and a new training program for workers.

Thailand

THEMES

PAD Versus Government

• Three Senate panels investigating the October 7 clashes ruled there were irregularities in the handling of protests and urged the government to take responsibility or face a motion for general debate.
• Academics filed a letter to impeach Somchai over the October 7 clashes.
• Two additional people believed to be PAD Guards were arrested last week for illegal possession of weapons – handguns, knives, and batons.
• Police added drug charges against two PAD guards caught with explosives last Sunday.
• A bomb was hurled into Government House on Wednesday injuring two protesters, the 5th explosion since October 30.
• Somchai urged protestors to leave Government House and reiterated willingness to hold talks.
• The PAD (Chaiwat) called on the First Army to ‘subdue’ the government for its abuses of power.
• Anupong launched an investigation into statements made by Kattiya warning the PAD of violence after the royal cremation. The PAD warned their would be more violence if Thaksin phoned-in.
• Retired general Panlop met with TS in China and opposed the PAD, despite former statements and being class 7 with Chamlong.

Ever-Active Courts

• The NACC indicted Apirak and others in the fire engine case. Apirak announced he would resign to set a responsible standard for political office holders faced with solid charges.
• The NCCC indicted former deputy interior minister Sombat for alleged asset concealment.
• The NCCC will charge 28 Samak cabinet members for violation of Article 190 over the Preah Vihear joint communiqué.
• Senators filed motions to impeach several Constitution Court judges on the grounds they were ‘employed’ by private businesses.
• Loxley threatened a $57.1 million lawsuit against if the government fails to launch the new online lottery in the next month.

Thaksin News

• Thaksin and wife Potjaman divorced over the weekend in HK; former ASC lawyers say this will not free $2.2 billion in frozen assets rumored in her name.
• The UK said it revoked the visas because of TS’s sentencing.
• Thaksin will not appeal the land case.
• Malaysia announced it would refuse asylum for TS; Bermuda refuted media reports that it had offered refuge to TS.
• Thaksin is rumored to be in Dubai, seeking a home.
• Apichart urged TS not to make another phone-in address to supporters; the phone-in has been scheduled for December 14.

Economic Indicators Update

• The Thai Chamber of Commerce predicted a worst-case scenario of 0%-0.2% export growth in 2009, coupled with GDP growth of 2.9%-3.1%.
• Government tax revenue in October fell 18.4% against 2007 to $2.61 billion. 17 economic advisors were appointed to help Olarn weather the downturn.
• The SET is down 49% in 2008, though up 15% from an October 29 low, closing at 442.31 points last week. The SET fell to 419.97 on news of Japanese recession Tuesday.
• The CCI hit a year low in October at 75.8 over flagging economic outlook.
• The BoI adopted the single-zone system for all of Thailand, except Bangkok, giving maximum privileges to six industries most at risk in the downturn – energy efficiency, high-tech innovation and agriculture, green products, megaprojects, tourism and real estate.
• Preuksa Real Estate said the market could shrink 10% in 2009.

ADDITIONAL NEWS

Political News

• Thousands of Thais dressed in black to pay respects at the royal cremation.
• The Thai-Cambodia JBC agreed to prioritize surveying and demarcating the disputed areas around Preah Vihear, promising progress ASAP.
• Somchai said the impending cabinet reshuffle will not see any changes to ministers or quotas.
• The Ministry of Education is asking for $858 million to finance mega projects – increasing teacher efficiency, fixing schools, and developing IT.
• Somchai suggested building a new Government House in Bangkok.

Business News

• The US ambassador said trade policies to Thailand will not change under Obama.
• Chalerm announced the MoH would seek CL on more drugs.
• ExIm bank is seeking $363 million in government funds for a new soft loan program for SME exporters.
• The ICT Ministry says WiMax and 3G licenses should be allocated by mid-2009.
• The BoT is likely to revise policy-rate call after easing inflation.
• Ratchaburi Electricity is being more aggressive about acquiring stakes abroad, looking at Indonesia and Vietnam in particular.
• True Move signed a non-exclusive deal to sell the 3G iPhone in Thailand and develop the Smartphone.
• Jasmine aims to tap its fixed-line network to provide broadband services.
• Thaicom will shift strategy to focus on corporate and government segments in response to the global recession.

Vietnam

THEMES

Managing Growth While Containing Inflation

• Dung emphasized the dire need to boost exports and narrow the trade deficit to halt GDP growth slowdown and said the government will continue to implement a flexible monetary policy and stimulus measures – cutting loan interest rates, curbing inflation, regulating mergers and acquisitions and auditing credit capacity while continuing social welfare projects.
• The MoIT said inflation will not rise in November thanks to continued drops in global prices of raw materials.
• The MoF said it will monitor the prices of 15 essential goods and intervene to stabilize the market if necessary.
• MOIT has predicted Vietnam’s export turnover in November and December may be $9.4 billion, down 1.3% against the same period last year.
• Importers fear that the dollar exchange rate is too high.
• The NA passed the State budget allocation resolution, eyeing spending of $21.6 billion and revenues of $24.2 billion in 2009.
• S&P said Vietnam was one of three Asian countries most at risk for a credit-rating downgrade in the global recession despite recent good moves.
• The MoF decided to increase the gas import tariff from 0% to 5%, effective in the next 15 days.
• The MoF cut retail petrol prices by another VND1,000 per liter on November 15 and adjusted petrol product import taxes, effective November 18.
• The Vietnam Railway decided to abolish the 3% fuel surcharge on goods transport from November 15 after diesel price reductions.
• The MPI has completed a mid-term review of socio-economic development from 2006-2010, saying the economy will stabilize in 2009 and regain growth impetus in 2010, highlighting inflation as the biggest ongoing concern.

Building Infrastructure, Influx of FDI

• The ADB suggested Vietnam raise the annual level of infrastructure investment to 11-12% from the current 9-10% to aid development, while modernizing the PPP legal framework to encourage more partnerships.
• The government is seeking investment for the $1.2 billion Hanoi urban railway number 5 project, the first large-scale project up for state-private partnership.
• Dung approved a plan to spend $941.9 million on modernizing Phu Quoc International Airport by 2020.
• ABB began construction on a $30 million electrical equipment plant in Bac Ninh.
• EVN said it will complete projects with a capacity of 2064MW this year.
• Taiwan’s Formosa Plastics Group is looking into building a $15 billion petrochemical complex in Ha Tinh province from 2010.
• The UK’s Premier Oil announced plans to invest $515 million in Vietnam in 2009, up from $225 million in 2008.
• An ABC Survey shows Vietnam edging out the US to take third place in a ranking of the attractiveness of countries to Asian investors.
• Cambodia and Vietnam signed a deal to link their railways; China will help fund the $500 million rail link.
• Logistics companies are stepping up investment in Northern Vietnam, although the sector still meets only 25% of domestic demand.
• Dung rejected a $5.38 billion steel project proposed by ROK’s Posco Group.
• Representatives of each government signed an MOU on the third phase of the VJJI, 2009-2010.
• Dung said bilateral trade between Vietnam and China could reach $15 billion in 2008, rising to $20 billion by 2010.
• The Lao Bao Special Trade Economic Zone has attracted 52 projects worth $135.5 million over the past decade.
• Minister of Transport and Communications announced the opening of a floating port to export crude from Su Tu Vang.
• PetroVietnam may join a trans-Asia gas pipeline.

Capital Market Development

• A wave of new shares hit the market last week, causing the VN-Index to drop 3.9% on November 11, closing at 351.71. The Index closed at 340.69 on Tuesday.
• All banks have lowered deposit interest rates after SBV rate cuts, slowing capital mobilization.
• Brokers were optimistic that continued retail gas price cuts would reverse market falls.
• Vinamilk delayed its Singapore listing due to unpredictable market fluctuations
• The dollar rose to VND 17,400/$1 last week.

Education Developments

• DPM Nhan said the politburo would make a decision on tuition increases in December, to come into effect for the 2009-2010 school year; the suggested level is 4-6% of household income.
• The MOET said it is prioritizing cooperating with local branches to analyze drop outs and limit their numbers.
• The HCMC Education and Training Department said that 10.09% of its teachers are informatics illiterate.
• Viettel will provide broadband internet services to HCMC schools.
• More and more students are studying social work despite difficulties in training and in finding jobs after graduation.

ADDITIONAL NEWS

Political News

• The NA passed five bills on road traffic, bio-diversity, technology, cadres and civil servants and judicial records.
• The NA held a three-day Q&A session about the environment, agricultural exports, and the economy.
• A Chinese warship will call at Danang this week after both PMs pledged closer military cooperation.
• The Ministry of Health will vaccine 9,200 11 year old girls against HPV for free by 2010.

Business News

• The MOIT and MoH signed an MOU to promote pharmaceutical chemistry, pharmaceutical industries and cooperation on measures to stabilize the market. They will also cooperate on the trading rights of foreign enterprises and regulating foreign investment in the pharma sector, while fighting counterfeits.
• The MOIT has proposed a conservation and energy efficiency plan to save 5% of total energy needs by 2010 and 8% by 2015 if it is approved.
• EVN said the government should replace power price subsidies with a price ceiling.
• The MOF accepted a plan to increase coal prices for cement, paper and fertilizer producers from Q2 2009.
• The ADB will provide $72 million in loans for a project to improve health care services on the southern central coast over 32 years.
• Vinamotor and Venezuela’s Milco finalized the creation of a joint venture for the construction of light duty trucks, motorcycles and a cement plant from May 2009.
  

News Briefing - November 4, 2008

APEC

Business News

• APEC is discussing liberalizing the service sector to boost regional economic growth. Trade between APEC members accounts for 50% of global trade.

ASEAN

Political News

• ASEAN governments want to learn more about Malaysia’s biometric Mobile Immigration Enforcement System (MIES) for tracking illegals.

Business News

• The ASEAN business forum opposes the plan to move the summit to Chiang Mai and will hold its parallel meeting in Bangkok.
• Olarn said plans for Asian economies to establish a regional support fund are likely to be settled at the ASEAN Summit in December. The Asian Financial Community initiative will establish three funds: 1) $150 billion to shore up short-term liquidity, 2) $200 billion to finance intra-Asian investment, especially in infrastructure projects and the stock markets, 3) 10% of foreign reserves set aside.

Indonesia

THEMES

Coal News

• Northstar Pacific plans to buy Bakrie’s 35% stake in Bumi for $1.3 billion.
• Adaro expects the coal sale price to increase to $52-$65 per ton from the current $36-$39 per ton.
• Adaro expects its coal output to rise by 10.5% next year to 42 million tons. The company expects to produce 38 million tons this year.
• Bayan has signed a $300 million mining contract with Petrosea for overburden removal.
• PLN plans to acquire five holders of coal mining licenses in order to guarantee supplies of coal to PLN’s coal-fired power plants. So far only one deal has been signed.
• Indika Energy is targeting stocks owned by Darma Henwa with an offer price of $0.01 per share in order to reinforce the company business in mining and electricity sectors.
• Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam is looking to cooperate with KA Trans to secure the coal supply for PLN through Tanjung Enim-Tarahan routes as PLN develops its 10,000 MW coal-fired power plants.

BI Scandal Continues

• The KPK began questioning Aulia Pohan and three other former BI deputy governors implicated in the bribery scandal yesterday.
• Former BI governor Syahril Sabirin is to undergo questioning by the KPK for his alleged connection to a BI graft case involving the disbursement in funds to expedite the amendment of the BI law and the settlement of a corruption scandal involving BLBI funds.
• Former BI governor Burhanuddi Abdullah was sentenced to five years in prison for his role in the BI graft case involving the disbursement of $9.1 million to expedite the amendment of the BI law and the settlement of a corruption scandal involving BLBI funds.
• State Minister of National Development Planning Paskah Suzetta denied he had ever received BI funds channeled to House financial commission members in 2003 while being questioned by the Corruption Court.
• The AGO is continuing to investigate 10 prosecutors who allegedly tried to halt earlier probes into bribery involving BLBI funds.

The Global Financial Crisis

• The Finance Ministry bought back $3.89 million worth of government bonds as part of a plan to improve the prospects for businesses threatened by the global economic crisis.
• The Finance Ministry announced that the government will provide tax incentives valued at $1.13 billion to a range of business sectors next year to help them weather the impact of the financial crisis. The incentives will be aimed at reducing the costs of business for small and medium enterprises.
• The government is limiting wage rises to help labor-intensive manufacturers prevent layoffs and lessen the impact of the economic crisis.

2009 Election

• The House of Representatives endorsed the presidential election bill, which requires a party or a coalition of parties to win at least 20% of seats in the House or 25% of the popular vote to be eligible to nominate a candidate.
• Candidates running for the 2009 presidential and VP elections will be expected to hold a total of five rounds of public debates, with 3 debates among VP candidates and two among presidential candidates.

Telecommunications News

• Bapepam has decided Qtel must buy the rest of its Indosat shares at the same price paid to Telemedia in June. Qtel is in the process of holding a tender offer for the rest of Indosat's shares, and has offered to pay less per share than previously.
• Six of ten telecom operators participating in the universal service obligation phone tender pre-qualification have passed. They will be able to compete in the tender process for seven work packages, which may be controlled by one or many operators.
• Telkom’s third-quarter net profits fell 18% to $246 million due to higher operating costs and maintenance expenses.

ADDITIONAL NEWS

Political News

• The Supreme Court officially transferred its authority to handle regional election dispute cases to the Constitutional Court.
• The House of Representatives passed the controversial anti-porn bill, which as been criticized as being too broad.
• A new anti-discrimination law went into effect last week which is being criticized by human rights groups because it only focuses on ethnic and racial discrimination and only applies to the workplace and not government officials.
• The AGO has fired six of its prosecutors, citing charges of bribery, extortion, drug abuse, negligence and disobedience.
• Legislator Bulyan Royan denied accusations that he demanded bribes for the procurement of 20 patrol boats for the Transportation Ministry's directorate of sea transportation.
• Former West Java Governor Danny Setiawan has returned $20,833 he stole from a fund to procure fire engines and heavy equipment from 2003 to KPK.

Business News

• Indonesia has awarded more oil and gas exploration rights on nine blocks to energy companies in a bid to stem its steady production decline. This included awarding the Gunting block to ExxonMobil unit Esso Exploration International.
• Bojonegro District Head Suyoto says he will not get involved in the alleged misuse of funds from the socialization budget at Cepu block.
• The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has proposed the price of subsidized fuels to be reduced by $0.05 to $0.07 per liter following a decline in crude oil prices.
• PLN began operation of Asia Pacific’s first crude palm oil fueled power plant in Riau, which will be able to generate 10 MW of electricity.
• BI was unable to execute a planned $693 million bailout of Indover because it had failed to secure written approval from the House. It is also said BI officials were afraid of state losses and future litigation.
• HSBC is in the process of acquiring a majority stake in Bank Ekonomi, controlled by the Katuari family.
• Bank Central Asia announced a deal to acquire United International Bank to expand its sharia business. The takeover will be worth about $24.2 million.
• Samsung Electronics is planning to build a factory to produce video cameras and cellular phones in Cikarang, Bekasi, West Java next year. The investment will be worth $50-$100 million.

Malaysia

THEMES

UMNO Elections

• Najib won the UMNO presidency uncontested after receiving 140 nominations.
• Muhyiddin has 66 nominations, and no one else has reached the minimum number of nominations to contest for the VP post.
• Khairy Jama­luddin, once the favorite for UMNO Youth chief, is lagging with 50 nominations. Mukhriz Mahathir is leading with 70, and Khir Toyo has 56.
• UMNO division head election winners: Datuk Seri Tengku Azlan Sultan Abu Bakar for Jerantut; Hanafi Mamat for Pasir Mas; Fatmi Che Salleh for Kota Baru; and Nasrun Mansur for Silam.

Global Financial Crisis

• The Malaysian central bank met with financial institutions to urge banks to continue lending and to restructure loans where necessary in order to sustain economic activity in the country.
• The government cut fuel prices by 6.5% due to falling global oil prices. This is the fourth fuel price cut since June’s 41% hike.
• The Government is negotiating with manufacturers and importers to reduce the price of goods now that fuel prices have dropped.

ADDITIONAL NEWS

Political News

• The state DAP believes Najib may call for a snap general election shortly after taking over as prime minister in March in order to put his own cabinet in place.
• Abdul Razak Baginda, a former associate of Najib, was acquitted of abetting the murder of Mongolian national Altantuya Shaariibuu.
• UMNO is facing increasing accusations of money politics, which critics say the party is not taking seriously. Mahathir has recently spoken out against money politics, saying it could be UMNO’s downfall.
• The Federal Court threw out an appeal by Munawar A Anees, Anwar’s former speech writer, that his sodomy charge be remitted to the High Court so that he can argue his case.
• The ACA completed its investigation into Anwar’s black-eye incident from his detention ten years ago. The prosecution panel will determine when the investigation’s findings will be made known.
• UMNO Youth agrees that the New Economic Policy needs a new approach, but it rejects any suggestion to abolish the bumiputra equity policy.
• Gerakan VP Datuk Dr. S. Vijayaratnam died after falling off a rooftop in what is believed to be an accident.
• The Public Accounts Committee found no procedural irregularities in the purchase of 12 Eurocopters worth $453 million.
• The country's first judicial appointment commission may be established by year's end. The present system of judicial appointments has given rise to questions about the judiciary's integrity and credibility, and it is hoped a commission will lead to a more transparent, merit-based system.
• Malaysia will host the inaugural ASEAN Infrastructure Financing Mechanism Conference in Kuala Lumpur on November 10.

Business News

• Abdullah announced that an on and off $846 million 500km Kimanis-Bintulu gas pipeline project is now on again. He gave no explanation for the change.
• Parliament is questioning Silterra Malaysia, a Khazanah Nasional-owned company, about how it lost $282 million in 2007 despite the government pumping in $1.47 billion since the company started in 1994.
• AirAsia is optimistic about the future despite the current economic situation, believing it will be able to attract customers in search of cheaper fares. The company plans to expand into Europe and India in the next few years.
• The Ipoh-Padang Besar electrified double-tracking project was awarded to MMC-Gamuda JV through direct negotiation since MMC-Gamuda JV has the expertise necessary to carry out the project and meets government standards.
• Public Bank has set up an Islamic banking subsidiary in an attempt to tap new growth markets as competition becomes increasingly stiff.
• YSP Southeast Asia Holding plans to shift the production of lower-end generic drugs to Vietnam and turn Malaysia into a high-end manufacturing hub for Southeast Asia.

Philippines

THEMES

Global Economic Crisis

• The government will likely defer the sale of the PNOC-EC stake to next year amid unfavorable market conditions brought about by the financial crisis.
• The Bankers Association of the Philippines will tap its fixed-income trading platform, Philippine Dealing & Exchange Corp., to create an interbank peso lending facility backed by government securities in order to boost liquidity.
• BSP said the enactment of the Credit Information System Act, which creates a central registry of basic credit data, has come at a good time and will give a boost to the credit market.
• The BSP warned that the financial crisis has begun to move away from Europe and the U.S., and has begun spreading to markets like the Philippines and that economic developments must be monitored closely.
• Local firms are still pushing through with their capital-raising plans to fund energy and infrastructure projects and trying to find opportunities despite the world’s economic problems.
• The national government is now in the process of determining which infrastructure projects to speed up in order to boost employment in 2009. Possible projects include the Light Rail Transit 1 extension to Cavite, Northrail, or the construction of the north Skyway road.

Scandals in the News

• 105 administration allies in the House of Representatives received $62,000 to $100,000 in fertilizer funds in 2004 from then agriculture undersecretary Jocelyn Bolante.
• The Senate blue ribbon committee plans to start its investigation into the $15 million fertilizer fund scam next week.
• Jocelyn Bolante’s son has filed a habeas corpus seeking the release of Bolante from Senate custody, saying that the arrest is illegal because the Congress that issued the warrant of arrest no longer exists.
• Sen. Manuel Roxas is asking Russian officials to provide information on the controversy surrounding retired Philippine National Police director Eliseo dela Paz, who was caught in a Moscow airport $142,000 worth of undeclared cash.
• The Supreme Court will take up the petition filed by retired Police Director Eliseo dela Paz and the motion lodged by former Agriculture Undersecretary Jocelyn Bolante challenging the arrest orders issued against them by the Senate when the court resumes its full court session on November 11.

ADDITIONAL NEWS

Political News

• Civil society groups have complained that the draft implementing rules and regulations for the Cheaper Medicines Law has some key holes in it, such as rules on "parallel importation," which would allow the government and private groups to import patented medicines from countries where they are sold at a lower cost.
• A law defining the Philippine’s archipelagic baselines that excludes the Spratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal may be passed because including the disputed territory could cause other countries to reject the measure and exclude the Philippines from international maritime law.
• Former House Speaker Jose de Venecia Jr. endorsed the impeachment complaint against GMA. It is unlikely he will be sanctioned by the leadership of Lakas-CMD
• The government is seeking up to $1 billion in foreign aid to fund the construction of one part of the planned Mindanao railway system, which is expected to drive economic development in the region.

Business News

• The sale of Philamlife is expected to be completed before the end of the year at the earliest with purchase price of roughly around $800 million, nearly half of the estimated $ 1.5 billion.
• PNOC-EC is seeking a joint venture partner to take up at least a 20% stake in the East Sabina block located in offshore Southwest Palawan.
• GSIS expects to get $260.2 million in profit from the sale of its shares in Meralco to San Miguel.
• The Ashmore Group and San Miguel are in negotiations over San Miguel’s bid to acquire the Ashmore Group’s 51% stake in Petron.
• PSALM is planning to sell two decommissioned power plants by the first quarter of 2009.
• The Philippines plans to start up its first 600 MW nuclear power plant by 2025, according to the Department of Energy.
• A House bill seeking to develop tourism and reorganize the agencies of the Department of Tourism has been approved by two House committees.

Thailand

THEMES

PAD Versus Government

• Anupong said the Somchai government bears responsibility for the police crackdown and investigating why the operation turned violent, reiterating that a coup would not solve the country’s problems.
• 10 people were injured as a grenade was thrown at PAD guards, an explosion damaged a Constitution Court judge’s house and gunfire was heard near Government House with a man found dead near police headquarters. A bomb exploded near Government House at 2am on Tuesday, there were no injuries.
• The Bangkok Pundit says the mounting violence is akin to ‘tit for tat gang warfare’ noting that the judge whose home was attacked has been a vocal anti-Thaksin presence. The PAD has declared it is under attack since a spate of violent acts last week.
• Thaksin asked supporters if they would allow him to remain in exile for 10 years to wait out the statute of limitations on his sentence in the land case. Thaksin called for peace and reconciliation while criticizing the judiciary for ‘ending justice’ and chastised the PAD for hurting democracy and the economy to get rid of one person, himself.
• The UDD rally on November 1 attracted more supporters than any PAD rally to date, a strong show of support for Thaksin. The PAD accused Thaksin of disuniting society with his telephone address to around 75,000 supporters.
• The PAD rejected an appeal for peace talks, calling the approach inappropriate. A group of PPP MPs called on Prem to mediate a solution to the political conflict. Somchai said the government was ready to hold talks with the PAD, with any effective mediator, in response to Chamlong’s comments about PAD willingness.
• The PAD said it had received more than $1 million in donations for victims of the October 7 clashes.
• Pro-Thaksin people surrounded the Chiang Mai office of the TPBS, demanding an apology from the director after reports that supporters were paid to join the Bangkok rally.

Ever-Active Courts

• Police are considering stripping Thaksin of his rank of Lieutenant-Colonel after his conviction.
• PAD protesters rallied outside the British embassy to press for Thaksin’s extradition.
• The Supreme Court said it would monitor Thaksin’s speech for any contempt of court and warned media sources from reprinting any illegal comments. Thaksin’s speech was monitored by many groups, including the armed forces, while many say his comments stoke social confrontation. One of the most controversial remarks implied Thaksin would seek royal pardon, though he denies this, saying he will appeal the decision with the Supreme Court. The armed forces called his speech ‘out of bounds’ for putting pressure on the King.
• Democrat MP Korn Chatikavanji petitioned for an investigation into whether the chief prosecutor abused his power by deciding not to prosecute Thaksin on the SC Asset Case.
• PPP assigned its defense roles in the dissolution case and will emphasize that the executive board had nothing to do with electoral fraud committed by Yongyuth. Rumors abound that Newin was in London to reconcile with Thaksin and propose a new substitute party under himself.
• The EC decided not to red card Vithoon Nambutr, Democrat Party Deputy Leader, making the party safe from dissolution.
• The Central Investigation Bureau is wrapping up 32 lese majeste cases, including Jakrapob’s case, which has been forwarded to the OAG; investigators said there was sufficient evidence to recommend his prosecution.

Economic Indicators Update

• The Thai economy grew 4.5% in Q3, boosted by export growth. The Fiscal Policy Office forecast growth of 4% for Q4, brining 2008 GDP growth to 5.7%.
• Inflation was down to 3.9% in October, a sharp drop from 6% in September; the Commerce Ministry revised 2008 inflation down from 6.5-6.9% to 5.9-6.3%, largely on the decline in oil prices.
• The cabinet endorsed a three year spending budget of $203 billion, including $46 billion for mega-project investment, considered a priority in times of crisis. The budget is designed to ensure growth of 3-4% in 2009-2010 and 5-6% in 2011. During this time, the government will run budget deficits, using government spending as a key element to drive the economy.
• Suchart said boosting the 2009 budget by $2.86 billion to $55.2 billion could add 1% to growth with extra money spent on job programs and public investment. The increase will raise the budget deficit for FY09 to 3.5% of GDP, up from 2.4%.
• The SET rose 6.29% to 408.31 points on Thursday as domestic investors bought bargain shares. The SET also jumped 7.84% on Monday to close at 449.19 on good news and avoidance of drama in Bangkok over the weekend. The SET will finalize a proposed $235.6 million matching fund to support the equity market, which has lost over 50% of its value this year. The SET closed Tuesday at 457.62.
• The cabinet approved the extension of the 100% guarantee on bank deposits until August 2011 in a bid to prevent mass withdrawals in light of the current crisis.

ADDITIONAL NEWS

Political News

• The parliament gave negotiators authority to hold border demarcation talks with Cambodia on November 10. Thailand lobbied Canada to hold a special meeting to take action against Cambodia for allegedly planting new landmines on the border.
• A draft of amendment 291 is ready for consideration amid fears it will escalate tensions.
• Kuthep said the PPP will renew a push for amnesty after the next general election.
• Somchai said he would speed implementation of the Village Fund, One Tambon One Product (OTOP) and Small and Medium-Sized Lending (SML) programs, first launched by Thaksin, to aid the grassroots economy.
• Somchai visited the southern provinces of Yala, Pattani and Naratiwat to follow up on implementation of government programs.
• Puea Pandin MPs are fighting over the Deputy Interior Minister cabinet seat after the media announced Prasong was resigning, only to have him deny it.
• The WHO and Bloomberg Foundation gave $937,223 to Thailand to support its 100% Smoke Free Environment project.
• Chalerm’s son, Wan Yoobamrung, was appointed as the Deputy PM’s Sec Gen.
• Samak will leave Wednesday for the United States to seek liver cancer treatment.

Business News

• Somchai wants construction of the purple, blue and red mass rapid transit lines, worth $6.05 billion, to be accelerated.
• DTAC has outlined a stimulus plan to focus on broadband service next year to offset shrinking voice revenue. The company plans to begin 3G mobile broadband service in Bangkok, Cho Buri and Phuket, with nationwide service available by mid-2009. DTAC will partner with Kasikornbank to introduce the second phase of its ATM SIM service to enable easy mobile banking and purchasing. Telenor will give $142.9 million in grants to DTAC to aid its 3G investment plan.
• Despite lingering disputes, Thailand gained almost $4 billion in the first year of the JTEPA.
• The State Railway of Thailand wants a private company to operate the new Airport Rail Link, due to begin transport on August 12, 2009, until a subsidiary can be formed to handle the service.
• Oil retailers cut diesel prices by 60 satang per liter. PTT expects earnings in the ytd will be even with 2007.
• The cabinet approved $63 million Casava and Corn pledging schemes to aid farmers.

Vietnam

THEMES

Managing Growth While Containing Inflation

• Vietnam will target growth above 6% in 2009 despite worsening global situation. The government expects export growth of 10-12%, limiting budget to 4.3% of GDP and continuing to focus on curbing inflation, estimated at 22% for 2008.
• The MOF approved the fourth VND 500 cut in the retail price of petrol per liter, effective October 31. The MOF proposed raising fuel import tariffs from 15% to 25% on gas and from 10% to 15% on diesel to offset state budget losses stemming from the falling price of crude.
• Vietnamese consumers are tightening the belt and reducing the market’s selling power, despite steady price drops of 5-15% in consumer products. The MOF will strengthen control of prices, such as public transport fares.
• A conference in Vietnam reviewed lessons of WTO membership, noting that despite many successes, high inflation is making growth less equal.

Building Infrastructure, Influx of FDI

• Ninh Thuan province is leading the country in FDI inflow with 16.8%, or $9.79 billion of the total FDI in the ytd, not including the capital of seven oil and gas exploration projects.
• Bac Lieu has mobilized $208.3 million from the State, foreigners and its own people for development investment in 2008.
• The World Bank will lend $60 million to Vietnam to modernize its financial sector and the financial information management system.
• Nippon Steel will invest $553 million in a 10-20% stake in a Vietnam venture with ROK’s Posco to expand a production alliance.
• Phu Yen approved the Trung Nam Group build a $115 million, 40 MW hydroelectric plant at Dong Cam Dam.
• Six foreign investors expressed willingness to become investors of the EVN power projects, and MOIT will allow them to bid for licenses.
• HCMC is calling for domestic and foreign investors to build 6,500 resettlement apartments worth $356.2 million. Investors will finance the apartment construction in exchange for cash or land in or near the Thu Thiem New Urban Area.
• The Vietnam Steel Association is raising doubts about the initiation and operation of so many new steel projects.
• Vietnam and Mongolia agreed to strengthen friendship and economic ties during Triet’s visit to Ulaan Bataar last week. The Presidents affirmed a desire to address goods transport issues and to boost bilateral trade to $10 billion in 2010. President Enkhbayar said he hopes Vietnam can be the gateway for Mongolian interactions with other ASEAN nations. The two sides also signed a Memorandum of Understanding on industrial cooperation.
• Russell 20-20 members met with representatives of 30 large groups in Vietnam to discuss the investment environment.

Capital Market Development

• The SBV announced it will cut its benchmark interest rate 1 point to 12% on Wednesday, the second cut in three weeks, aimed at warding off recession. Big banks have followed the SBV, cutting lending rates and increasing cash flow to realty developers in particular.
• The VN-Index rose for three days to close at 347.05 on October 31, despite decreases in trading volume. The VN-Index closed at 348.64 points on Tuesday, it’s highest since October 23, while PVFC lost the maximum-allowed 20% on its debut.
• The HASTC announced $26.8 million in government bonds at 14.5% a year. Vietnam Development Bank sold $35.6 million in bonds, with proceeds going to state infrastructure projects.

Education Developments

• MOET says the program to teach English from the 3rd grade onwards as of 2010 requires extensive preparation and will only be implemented in 20% of primary schools, on a voluntary basis, in a trial run from 2010, while the program is expected to reach schools in remote areas by 2018.
• MOET says Vietnam has 1.7 million illiterates, mostly over age 36 and in Hanoi.
• MOET says around 60,000 Vietnamese students are studying abroad, with China the most attractive destination, followed by Australia and the US. 4,000 students are overseas under the government’s 322 scholarship program.
• On October 29, the Fideco Group and US Stellar Management opened an Education, Training and International Conference Center (FideS) to improve management and leadership skills among Vietnamese businesspeople from 2010.
• GE’s President for SE Asia said Vietnam should boost its education efforts to upgrade its economy.

OTHER NEWS

Political News

• The NA discussed the need to upgrade forecasters to stave off costs from inaccurate forecasts as Vietnam integrates further into the global economy. The NA also discussed the need to support agricultural and rural development and to better implement farm product underwriting. NA delegates opposed a draft to scrap the use of the death penalty for certain crimes, such as corruption and counterfeit production.
• The Ministry of Home Affairs discussed a trial election for commune-level officials while also discussing reorganization of local government.
• Dung said Vietnam will create favorable conditions for US investors to foster long-term and efficient investment.
• Manh said the Chinese and Vietnamese Party Central Committees should work on exchanges and information sharing, particularly regarding theoretical work, to enhance the role of party leadership.
• The MOH announced it will destroy all eggs imported from China found to contain melamine, while also strengthening import controls, especially at border crossings. The MOH said it will not allow the sale of any products containing melamine or other harmful substances.
• The Government Inspector General said Vietnam had made progress against corruption, with cases falling this year and reporting up.
• Vietnam and China discussed experiences in disaster relief and the role of the armed forces.
• Vietnam and Cambodia will sign a visa exemption agreement during Hun Sen’s visit this week.
• USAID launched three projects in Da Nang, worth $1 million, to help locals access health services and gain job-search skills.

Business News

• Total consumer technology market turnover in 2008 could reach $3.9 billion, up 21% yoy, though lower than June forecasts of $4.07 billion due to inflation costs and global downturn, with growth especially high in cameras/camcorders (60%) and home appliances (30%).
• FPT Telecom admitted violating IPR and said it would negotiate to pay for rights to over 10,000 songs on its website.
• The retail prices of drugs imported or produced by large firms have risen significantly in the past two months.
  

News Briefing - October 28, 2008

ASEAN

Political News

• An ILO report on Labor and Social Trends in ASEAN in 2008 reported that labor shortages were expanding from multinationals to local businesses, saying the problem was not a lack of applicants, but poor qualifications. The ILO estimated that, based on IMF predictions, the financial crisis could cost twenty million jobs worldwide.
• The Indonesian House of Representatives ratified the ASEAN Charter.
• An ASEAN meeting on the advancement of women was held in Hanoi on October 22, focusing on the draft master plan for an ASEAN socio-cultural community.
• Somchai called on EU leaders at the ASEM Summit to support Burma through development, not sanctions, saying his ASEAN leadership would focus on making it more ‘people-centered.’
• The ASEM summit ended with leaders committing themselves to a post-Kyoto set of goals to be discussed at the December 2009 meeting in Copenhagen. The Summit also saw discussion on human rights, food security and sustainable development.
• Though meetings between Thai and Cambodian leaders were supposedly positive, ASEAN Sec-Gen Surin announced the organization was ready to mediate the conflict.
• ASEAN’s summit December 15-18 will be moved from Bangkok to Chiang Mai.

Business News

• Thailand has proposed at $350 billion plan, 10% of foreign exchange reserves, to protect currencies and buy equities, bonds and fund infrastructure projects.
• China, Japan and South Korea will meet in mid-December to talk about forming an $80 billion currency swap scheme by the first half of 2009.
• ASEAN agreed to form a control group of finance ministers and central bank governors to study proposals to alleviate the crisis. ASEAN +3 leaders agreed to joint efforts to combat the global financial crisis while on the sidelines of the ASEM meeting in Beijing focusing on global warming.

Indonesia

Effects of the Global Financial Crisis

• The budgets for election campaigns may need to be reduced due to current economic problems and contributions will probably not be as large as they were in the past.
• SBY has been invited to attend a meeting of world leaders in Washington to address the global financial crisis.
• Jusuf Kalla held talks with the CEO of JP Morgan Asia to discuss measures that must be taken by banks and the government to support all sectors of the economy.

Coal News

• A consortium led by TPG has offered $1.28 billion for a 35 % stake in Bumi.
• Bukit Assam posted a net profit of $132 million for the first nine months of this year, a 150% jump from the same period last year.
• A syndication of four European banks will inject $400 million into coal-fired plant projects as part of the 10,000 MW electricity program. This injection will account for 25% of the total loan.

Cepu News

• MCL has begun cleaning wells in Bojonegoro, and plans to begin production of the block by December 10. MCL is targeting to produce of 20,000 bpd.
• People in the Banyuurip and Jambaran areas threatened to report the scandal involving the team clearing the Cepu block to the KPK.
• The government targets the Cepu block refinery will begin operating in February 2009. The refinery is expected to process crude oil at a capacity of 6,000 bpd.

2009 Elections

• NGOs are warning the 2009 legislative elections could fail because the KPU’s poor performance, such as not meeting schedules, enforcing election regulations inconsistently, and delaying the publication of the final list of eligible voters and the final list of legislative candidates.
• However, the KPU maintains that everything is on track for next year’s elections, and it is better prepared now than for the 2004 elections.
• Thirty-five kings from across the country will gather in Yogyakarta on October 28 to consider Sultan Hamengkubuwono X's bid for the presidency.

ADDITIONAL NEWS

Political News

• The KPK will take over the investigation of BLBI corruption cases from the AGO after criticism that the AGO had failed to resolve them.
• The stock market slowdown and decrease in banking liquidity may force mining firms to reduce their spending on exploration, causing commodity scarcity during the next four to five years.
• The BPK said it has found some irregularities in Indonesia's energy sector that might indicate corruption, after auditing the 2007 financial reports of government agencies and ministries. The 2007 non-tax revenue and income tax on oil and gas, worth $10.86 billion, were not transparently reported by contractors.
• After a three year deadlock, the House of Representatives passed the state ministry bill, which limits the number of ministries to 34 and allows ministers to have deputies.

Business News

• Indonesia's communications minister announced Qtel cannot control more than 65% of Indosat.
• As many as 23 operators have taken pre-qualification documents for repeat tender for universal service obligation, with potentially more to come since the deadline has not passed.
• The U.S. government has asked for reassurance from the Indonesia government that oil and gas contracts will be respected in order to create a more stable investment climate. Indonesia has said it will do all it can to respect the contracts.
• The government will consider lowering fuel prices following the drop in global crude oil prices, depending on whether it is economically feasible.
• The government is considering revising the negative investment list for the health and pharmacy sectors.
• Indover Bank, a Netherlands-based subsidiary of BI, defaulted on debt payments. Lawmakers have approved a $707 million bailout by BI, which will use massive taxpayer funds. The situation is being blamed on mismanagement on the part of BI.
• The Constitutional Court turned down a petition filed by labor unions to review a bankruptcy law allowing companies to prioritize paying their debts, which they said was in violation of workers' constitutional right to severance pay.
• Two geothermal power plants with a total capacity of 122 MW could be in operation by next year to help ease the country's power supply shortage.

Malaysia

Elections Scorecard

• Mukhriz is leading the UMNO Youth race with 66 nominations, while Khairy obtained 44. Khir Toyo has obtained 39 nominations, qualifying him to run.
• In the UMNO VP race, Hishamuddin is leading with 66 nimnations, followed by Ahmad Zahid with 46, Mohamed Khaled Nordin with 39, and Shafie Apdal with 36.
• Najib has acquired 82 nominations, while Tengku Razaleigh Hamza has none.
• Muhyiddin Yassin is well in the lead for deputy president with 54 nominations. The next contender, Mohd Ali Rustam, has 16.
• UMNO supreme council nominations are favoring new candidates over incumbents, possibly due to people desiring change and new blood in the leadership.

The Global Financial Crisis

• Badawi has called on world leaders to pay attention to the global food crisis, blaming the use of agricultural land for biofuels as the cause of rising prices.
• Malaysia is planning to reevaluate its projects, emphasizing those that will ensure employment is created and give people more disposable income. The focus will be on areas with high potential, biotechnology, agriculture, biofuel and services.
• Najib is planning to announce new measures to boostthe economy after finishing up the 2009 budget on November 4.

ADDITIONAL NEWS

Political News

• Najib has promised more will be done to stop money politics, and the UMNO disciplinary board has been given full mandate to take stern action against those in the party involved in money politics.
• Najib accepted Malaysiakini's apology with regards to the report on a manifesto which was wrongly attributed to him.
• Karpal Singh was suspended from Parliament for two days after being disrespectful to Speaker Tan Sri Pandikar Amin Mulia.
• There may be a Cabinet reshuffle if the newly-elected MCA president Ong Tee Keat wants to make any changes concerning ministers from the party.
• Eleven members of Hindraf were arrested after holding an illegal gathering outside the prime ministers office on Thursday, and have snce been released.
• The Pahang UMNO liaison committee has received eight complaints, including six on money politics, since the divisional delegates meeting started early this month.

Business News

• The exploration and production arm of Petronas has awarded 15 fabrication contracts worth a combined $782 million, with the largest going to Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering.

Philippines

Effects of the Global Economic Crisis

• The legislative proposal to increase the maximum insurance coverage of bank deposits could cause a spike in interest rates and trigger moral hazard, according to bank officials.
• Banks are in the middle of an eight day period in which they will be allowed to shift assets from categories that require mark-to-market accounting to categories that don't while booking them at their market value on July 1. That will allow banks to avoid hits from the recent plunge in prices for bonds and other investments world-wide.
• Food security, implementation of infrastructure, re-engineered education, and energy self-sufficiency top the list of priorities that the business community would like government to address to maintain gains that have been made in light of the economic crisis.
• Sen. Roxas has announced he believes the 2009 budget should be revised to enhance public spending and help protect against the global economic crisis.

Meralco News

• Barely a week after approving the new rate structure of Meralco, the Energy Regulatory Commission told the company that it could no longer implement a rate increase scheduled for November.
• San Miguel has announced it has an agreement with GSIS to buy a 27% stake in Meralco for $547 million. The company is also eyeing a stake in Petron from the Ashmore Group.
• The Commission on Audit expects to finish auditing Meralco sometime in January, which is being done to clarify rate-related issues in compliance with a 2006 Supreme Court order.

Philamlife Sale Status

• AIG’s sale of Philamlife should be finalized before the end of the year. Among those that have declared their intent to buy Philamlife’s assets are Ayala, the Yuchengco Group, Metrobank Group and GSIS.
• GSIS will have to take on a partner if it wants to bid for Philamlife, though they have not publicly stated who the partner might be yet.

ADDITIONAL NEWS

Political News

• The House of Representatives will have a long list of issues to contend with when it reconvenes on November 10, including the 2009 General Appropriations Act, economic reforms, and GMA’s impeachment complaint.
• House leaders are remaining firm against GMA’s impeachment bid, feeling it is ill-timed, bad for the country, and the elections are too close.
• GMA will have the opportunity to appoint seven new members to the Supreme Court next year, which is causing some to worry that she will strengthen her hold on the institution which well last until the end of her time in office and beyond.
• Jocelyn Bolante has been implicated as a major player in a huge fertilizer fund scam, and is being deported from the U.S. back to the Philippines.
• MILF is planning to disband its peace negotiating panel due to “loss of trust” in the government.

Business News

• Angelo Reyes Announced that the Philippines is on the brink of a power shortage. The Visayas are already experiencing occasional blackouts, he expects Mindanao to begin facing problems next year, and for Luzon to reach a critical point in 2010.
• Energy sales of Napocor went up by 2% in the first half of the year with increased sales across the country, especially in the Visayas.
• Sen. Edgardo Angara is calling on government officials to promote renewable energy, which the Philippines is in a good position to do as the second-largest geothermal producer in the world and with the highest wind-power potential in Southeast Asia.
• The Presidential Anti-Smuggling Group has asked the Commission on Audit and the Bureau of Internal Revenue to audit the stock of Unioil and Oilink in order to determine the extent of fraudulent practices perpetrated by these two companies.
• The Clark Development Corp. is willing to award the operation of Mimosa Leisure Estates to Waterfront Philippines a second chance to reach a settlement with Pagcor regarding the payment of the P350 million unpaid debt.
• Stakeholders have sought prior consultations before the Secretary of Health issues drug price ceilings under the implementing rules of the cheaper medicines law. The draft of the act has included an advisory council that may be consulted on price setting.
• The Philippines plans to ask for $100 million from the Millenium Challenge Corporation to fund its tax administration programs.

Singapore

Business News

• Singapore and China have a signed a free trade agreement that will eliminate 85% of Singapore’s exports to China.

Thailand

THEMES

October 7 Fallout Continued

• The Government said the Constitution rewrite would be halved to 120 days and signaled the House might then be dissolved. At least 40 senators will voice opposition to the formation of a CDA and push for government to dissolve the House rather than buy time with a rewrite, bringing the number of opposition votes to around 80 out of 150.
• The fact-finding committee on the police crackdown said it will not be able to finish its investigation within the 15-day deadline.
• Interior Minister Kowit said he believes no violence will occur if retired Pol Gen Salang leads officers to surround Government House.
• Somchai went to the ASEM Summit in Beijing despite widespread rumors of a coup.
• ABAC poll shows 56.3% support Somchai as PM, compared with 43.7% against. The most positive response came from the traditional base of northern poor.

Ever-Active Courts

• Democrat MP Withoon was acquitted of electoral fraud by the EC, while two additional Democrats were yellow carded, vacating House seats but allowed to contest by-elections.
• Prosecutors are translating the TS verdict as part of a slew of documents being prepared to get him extradited. Thaksin said he was confident the UK would not extradite him. Thai authorities must prove that he was convicted of an offense that is also punishable in Britain.
• The PAD leaders briefly considered discontinuing their protest last week after the TS verdict, but said that their new goal is his extradition. PAD leader Pibhop Dhongchai has proposed younger PAD members form a political party to push for ‘New Politics’ despite most PAD leaders insisting they will not contest elections.
• Thaksin was scheduled to phone into Truth Today’s mobile show on November 1; that is now in doubt.
• PPP execs may vacate their House seats to allow party-list candidates to become MPs and retain majority rule once disbanded.

Economic Indicators Update

• The Thailand Development Research Center (TDRI) has forecast the global crisis will lead to growth of less than 3.8% next year. However, TDRI’s recommendation was that the BoT trim its growth forecast to 2.2%.
• The Baht fell to an 18-month low of 34.79 to the dollar with analysts saying it has further to go as investors dump emerging market assets.
• The SET fell 10.5% on Monday to 387.43 points, crashing through the 400 point mental barrier amid widespread panic and prompting a trading cut at 4pm.
• The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) said that export output has dropped 30% and could continue into 2009, leaving over 1 million people unemployed.
• Olarn said the government will apply six more measures to cope with the impact of the crisis and will budget $34.5 billion of private-sector and bank money for injection into credit for SMEs and farmers and for encouraging the stock market.
• Suchart said eight state-controlled banks could be directed to increase lending to ease liquidity shortages if private banks scale back credit.
• The TAT will spend $1.4 million in the rest of the year to boost domestic tourism.

ADDITIONAL NEWS

Political News

• Cambodian provincial and military officials say they’re recruiting militias along the border with Thailand in case of another outbreak of hostilities. Thailand denied claims by Cambodia that its soldiers had damaged the Preah Vihear Temple with rocket fire on October 15, saying it was Cambodia that had used rockets.
• Anupong issued a warning that the military would not tolerate the implication of the monarchy in politics and would be strict with lese majeste vigilance.
• An ABAC poll shows 63% of Thais believe graft is a part of every government and is acceptable if the government still brought prosperity to its people.
• A bomb blast went off in the early morning before the land case verdict at the home of the Supreme Administrative Court President.
• About 200 state employees surrounded Somchai’s car when he arrived at the ICT Ministry, pelting him with shoes and insults.
• An article in the Vancouver Sun suggested that royal succession was at the heart of the turmoil.
• Chalerm will partner with the ICT Ministry to target websites selling abortion drugs.

Business News

• The BoI approved privileges for 45 projects worth $562.7 million.
• AIS will cut its 3G services budget for this year by 40% to $60 million, with the remaining 60% ($90 million) slated for provincial expansion next year.
• TOT forecast its net profit will drop 13% this year to $154.4 million.
• The GSM Association urged Thailand to proceed with 3G licensing and to begin planning for the 2.5GHz spectrum. Intel called for the NTC to speed the auction on WiMax licenses to complement 3G services.
• Thailand may barter rice for Iranian oil on a trip in November.
• The Central Transport Committee will lower non-air-conditioned public bus fares by $0.04 and air-conditioned fares by $0.03 from October 28.
• Protestors demonstrated outside the SET on Monday against a planned listing by Beer Chang Company, owned by Thai Beverage, and plan to demonstrate outside the Ministry of Finance on Wednesday.

Vietnam

THEMES

Managing Growth While Containing Inflation

• CPI in October dropped 0.19% against September, the first decrease in 18 months, though it remains 26.72% higher than October 2007. HCMC CPI dropped 0.24% in October.
• October marks the fifth straight month of curbing the trade deficit below $1 billion, making its level in June-October just 19.7% of that from January-May. It is forecast the 2008 deficit will be lower than planned targets.
• Imports rose 43% to $70.1 billion in October, down from 48% import growth through September. The estimated trade gap in the ytd is $16.3 billion. The MoIT said imports were forecast to rise 15% to $96.6 billion in 2009, creating a trade deficit of $20 billion.
• The MoIT set a target to increase exports by 18% to $76.7 billion in 2009.
• The MoIT asked the MoF to exempt rice from export taxes in order to boost exports; taxes were applied in July when worries about a shortage reigned.
• The SBV will cut the benchmark interest rate by as much as 2% in the coming months.

Building Infrastructure, Influx of FDI

• FDI inflows in October reached $2 billion on 68 new projects, bringing FDI in the ytd to $58.3 billion. Disbursement in the ytd reached $9.1 billion, a 38.3% rise yoy. Thua Thien-Hue Province has attracted $2.3 billion in FDI this year, a 600% increase over 2007. Industry and construction have taken 53.7% of projects and 55.7% of FDI value.
• Vietnam and China signed 8 deals during Dung’s visit to Beijing, including the establishment of a confidential phone line, cross-border medical quarantine, credit for the Hanoi-Ha Dong light rail project, preferential credit, a trade zone in Haiphong, cooperation, construction and operation of the Sao Mai-Ben Dinh port and strategic cooperation between PetroVietnam and CNOOC.
• Vinashin’s Nha Trang Shipyard won two contracts to build four new cargo ships for Norway’s Calypso Group (two ships at $71 million to 2010) and Laos’ LS Tourism and Transport Company ($63 million to 2009).
• Dung signed approval for the establishment of the Dong Dan-Lang Son border economic zone.
• MoTC estimates it will need $60 billion to fund road infrastructure from 2008-2020. The ADB is spending $29 million to finance preparations for three expressway projects from Hanoi to Lang Son, Ha Long to Mong Cai and Ben Luc to Long Thanh. Korea’s Incheon Urban Development Corporation (IUDC) will invest a build-operate-transfer project on construction of the Dau Giay-Lien Khuong expressway.
• Foreign investors will be able to own 100% of SOEs operating in certain sectors, in accordance with a new decree on the transferring and selling of state companies. In addition, intermediaries involved in appraisal and auctions, may not buy stakes in SOEs.
• MARD and Japan’s JICA signed a $3.5 million cooperation project to develop handicrafts and agriculture in four northwestern provinces.

Capital Market Development

• The VN-Index dropped 4.25% on Monday to close at 345.11. The VN-Index has lost 109.3 points, or 24%, since October 1.
• The SSC published a list of companies illegally selling shares on the HOSE and HASTC and forwarded the violators to the judiciary.
• The Dong fell against the dollar due to increased demand for dollars.
• Joint-stock banks have followed state-owned banks in cutting deposit interest rates to an average of 16% from a peak of 19% this summer.
• The BIDV said that almost all banks are falsifying documents on deposits to enjoy lower reserve requirements; some are suggesting a standard rate across all levels.
• Vietcombank plans to list by the end of Q1 regardless of the stock market value, despite two earlier delays for that very reason.
• Phu Nhuan Gold, Silver and Gemstone Company (PNJ), with a charter capital of $18.18 million, was approved to list 30 million shares on the HOSE.
• A new NA bill would have the Ministry of Finance assume responsibility for all foreign loans taken out by provincial governments.

Education Developments

• In 2009-2010, Vietnam will call for bidders for projects on training workers sent abroad through labor export companies in an effort to match supply and demand.
• Many students are now transferring from junior college to university to gain access to higher education from a lower starting point, with transfers increasing 200% this year over last.

OTHER NEWS

Political News

• The NA is discussing draft laws on categorizing and creating a legal framework for urban planning and another law on public debt management, which will not include SOE debt. Another NA draft law will broadly increase the level of subsidies for health insurance coverage.
• During his visit to China, Dung and counterpart Wen Jiabao agreed to push up negotiations on demarcation in the Gulf of Tonkin as well as completing land border demarcation by the end of 2008.
• The FM spoke out against the EU Parliament’s adoption of a resolution on human rights in Vietnam, which it says is inaccurate and threatens fruitful relations.

Business News

• The SBV moved to ensure financing for viable EVN projects by requiring banks to evaluate projects and finance loans for all feasible ones.
• Vietnam and the EU finished the second round of talks on the PCA; the next round will take place in Brussels in Q3 2009.
• Triet and President Medvedev witnessed the signing of a series of cooperation documents including agreements on cooperation in intellectual property protection, prevention of illegal immigration, repatriation of citizens, and implementation of this agreement, as well as an agreement on temporary working visits by Vietnamese citizens to Russia and Russian citizens to Vietnam and continued cooperation in oil and gas exploration and exploitation through Vietsovpetro until 2012, in addition to a number of cooperation agreements on oil and gas. The two sides also signed an agreement on cooperation in the sharing of information and a memorandum of understanding on cooperation in an investment project to build a mining and processing complex in Vietnam.
• Vietnam and Nigeria signed a deal to promote trade ties; Vietnam says Nigeria is a target for expanded export markets.
• A delegation of more than 230 businessmen from almost 160 Italian firms will visit Vietnam in November.
• Investment promoters from 30 northern cities and provinces met in Vinh Phuoc on October 24 to review their work and to coordinate with the MPI to assist investment promotion activities.
• CBRE said the real estate market for retail services remains appealing to local and foreign investors despite the global economy.
  

New BBA Team Members!

I am so happy to report that the BBA family is growing yet again!

Allow me to introduce 6 new members - yes, that’s right: we’re procreating like rabbits over here at BBA!

The first photo is of our new assistant research associates: Boo (far right), Baxter (far left) and Armani (in the center of the action, of course.)The second photo is of our new assistant admin associates: Basil, Bingo and Armando (from left to right).

All six new team members will be posted in Jakarta and working hard for BBA every day! Basil, Bingo and Armando are still learning the ropes so take it slow with them. Boo, Baxter and Armani on the other hand are like energizer bunnies and all ready to rock and roll! Stay tuned for their email addresses but feel free to write them through me or Fetty for the time being.

A special shout out to Fetty for sitting through endless interviews with me before we made our final hiring decisions. After a rigorous selection process, we both feel confident that our new friends will make important contributions in the months and years ahead!

Please join me in welcoming Boo, Baxter, Armani, Basil, Bingo and Armando to the team!

Best, Karen

Ben Dolven Becomes a Dad!

On March 18 BBA added a new member to its team! Eliana Sydelle Dolven-Miller was born clocking in at 5 lbs 4 oz and 19.5 inches. Mom and Dad are doing wonderful and are glad to be home with their smiling (see below!) daughter!

BBA & FRIENDS SERVE UP CEREAL FOR THE HOMELESS

BBA's extended family bonded together and collected well over 100 boxes of cereal for Miriam's Kitchen (www.miriamskitchen.org). The clients of the Kitchen eat about 20 boxes of cereal a day, so our contribution will provide breakfast cereal for a whole week -- and with the weather coming in like it is -- cold and wet -- breakfast in a warm place served by polite and friendly folks can make all the difference in your day if you are homeless and seeking some nutrition and a bit of humanity.

Ali and Ernie delivered the goods on the chilly morning of February 20 into the caring hands of Steve Badt (see pics below), a modern day hero who donates all of his time to run the breakfast program at Miriam's Kitchen.

The cereal was donated by BBA's team and our extended family. Notable contributions were made by Matt Miller and Miller Consulting Group, who worked with Matt's son's classes to collect over 50 boxes of cereal for the drive, Evolve Technologies, our IT gurus, and Ernie's neighbors from Breconridge.

For those of you who wish to join us for our regular volunteer work at Miriam's Kitchen, where we team up to serve a darn good breakfast about once a month, please contact Ali at awines@brooksbowerasia.com. Our next serving will be around mid-April.

Think globally and ACT LOCALLY!

Jimmy Buffet at the Long Bar in Singapore

TPG hosted an amazing party party featuring the fabled Jimmy "Cheeseburger in Paradise" Buffett. The party raised funds for local charities and was held at the historic Long Bar in the iconic Raffles Hotel.

Buffett and his band played for about 100 of the region's top business leaders including many members of the BBA posse'. Ernie had the good luck to be in Singapore on Friday night and had the honor to represent BBA in the mosh pit!

Mr. Buffett had never played in Singapore before and the Long Bar was a fitting venue for the evening. The King of Key West rocked SQ with his all time favorites including Margaritaville, Changes in Latitudes, Son of Sailor and wrapped up with a raucous version of Fins! And then he joined the guests for the party. An amazing night in the Lion City!

Cham Island

Vietnam's central coast is booming -- in terms of both investment and tourism. The focal point of new investment has been Danang. It's leadership, the Danang People's Committee has been ranked by academics as one of the business friendly provinces (Vietnam has 64 provinces).

Danang is also home to an enormous strand of beautiful beach front property. Many of the world's best luxury hotels are looking at developing sites there. BBA is looking at these opportunities for its clients, and Ha and Ernie spent some time there in January (with respective spouses) including a trip to Cham Island -- a beautiful treasure that is just a 20 minute boat ride off the coast.

Also nearby is the World Heritage site, the ancient city of Hoi An.

The Merger - VN-Canada in Blockbuster Merger!

WEDDING IN HANOI – Ha & Alex

On a spectacularly crisp day in Hanoi, with the beautiful red leaves of the ancient sua trees glimmering under the clear blue sky, BBA’s own Nguyen Viet Ha wed Canada’s Alexander Legendre. Ernie and Sam hurried to Hanoi after the New Year to witness the ceremony and then joined the newly-weds for their honeymoon in Hoi An.

Ha was a stunning, wearing traditional Vietnamese wedding dresses – one red, to greet the gleeful throng of guests that ranged from octogenarian uncles to exuberant nephews and nieces and a cross section of Hanoi’s most interesting and charming denizens – and one white, for the ceremony, speeches, cutting of the cake and zither riff.

The ceremony took place on January 6, a date divined by the keenest of the Ba Dinh District’s astrologers. The event was the other half of the Montreal part of the wedding that took place in November. Ha and Alex are now official!

Between them, Ha and Alex speak six or seven languages, hold half a dozen degrees and harbor two of the meanest top-hand forehands that international tennis has ever witnessed. Their children will not only be beautiful and smart, but they are sure to be curious, worldly and aces on the courts.

Love was in the air in Hanoi, and the crimson leaves of Hanoi glowed all day – no doubt honoring their maple leaf counterparts in Montreal. A good omen for a fantastic couple!